System dynamics for selecting a forecasting system based on the impact of excesses and shortages
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18046/syt.v11i24.1522Keywords:
Forecasts of demand, excess, missing, increasing demand.Abstract
This article studies the effect of the excesses and shortages in an organization, specifically in a product whose demand is growing. A system dynamics model was made through two diagrams two diagrams that are joined and related. In one of the diagrams is easy a sharing of forecast data, and in the main plot we can see the relations in the selection of a forecast with other components that are part of the organization. Based on all the relationships, we concluded about the impact of using three types of forecasts on finished goods inventory, safety stock, the level of service and the marginal utility of an organization.
References
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Vidal, C. 2010. Fundamentos de gestión y control de Invetarios. Cali, Colombia: Universidad del Valle
Forrester, J. (1961). Industrial Dynamics. Cambridge, MA: MIT
Gil, C (2007). Definición de Nivel de Servicio y Capacidad de las Terminales Portuarias. En Definición de los niveles de servicio de las terminales portuarias [Capítulo 3], (pp. 25-34). Barcelona, España: Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Disponible en http://upcommons.upc.edu/pfc/bitstream/2099.1/5770/6/05.pdf
Graves, S., Kletter, D., & Hetzel, W. (1998). A dynamic model for requirements planning with application to supply chain optimization. Operations Research, 46(3), 35-49
Thornassey, S., Happiette, M., Castelain, J.M. (2002). Three complementary sales forecasting models for textile distributors. En Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 2002 IEEE International Conference on, [vol.6].
Vidal, C. 2010. Fundamentos de gestión y control de Invetarios. Cali, Colombia: Universidad del Valle
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Published
2013-03-31
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Original Research
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